January 24, 2022 –
A sharp 2%-3% decline in equities markets has been one of the key factors in the sell-off taking place in petroleum futures during Monday trading.
Though futures are down sharply, the tensions on the Ukraine border continue to perhaps keep sellers from getting even more aggressive.
“I think oil traders are afraid of getting too bearish with the prospect of a Russia invasion of Ukraine,” Elaine Levin, president at energy risk management brokerage Powerhouse TL said. “If the stock market and bitcoin keep moving down, I do think we make new lows,” Levin added.
The low on WTI stands at $82.04 and prices at midday are getting a small bounce to $82.61/bbl, down $2.61 at 11:55 a.m. ET. March ICE Brent futures are also
down significantly today, with the March contract trading down $2.23 at $85.66/gal. With April Brent moving similarly, the backwardation remains wide
in the 80cts area as April was trading at $84.85/bbl.
As the futures contracts trend lower, some of the more important technical support levels get closer, with OPIS reporting earlier that technical analyst
Walter Zimmerman is watching the $81.90 level in WTI and $83.85 for Brent.
Refined products are now down either side of 6cts, and that has pummeled cash gasoline values with L.A. CARBOB near double-digit declines. Meanwhile,
downstream sources note “day deals” are emerging from suppliers to keep marketers from waiting until prices change. Also, the lower settlement on
Friday did help keep traffic at the racks on Sunday evening and Monday morning, sources note.
Front-month RBOB futures are off by 5.89cts at $2.3842/gal, and the more-liquid March contract is down by a similar amount, trading at $2.3866/gal, down
6.02cts. Cash markets are down sharply with the paper losses. Current futures prices are running roughly a penny above the lows.
Even with some potentially supportive weather and low inventories, ULSD futures were not immune to strong selling, with February and March futures down more
than 6cts. Front-month ULSD most recently traded at $2.6216/gal, down 6.96cts on light volumes. March ULSD on the other hand was down either side of 6.35cts
at $2.574/gal.
–Reporting by Denton Cinquegrana, dcinquegrana@