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Powerhouse In The Press

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 6.19.22 AM August 8, 2017 – Elaine is quoted in the GasTrader.net newsletter

“Elaine Levin, president at Powerhouse LLC, a Washington DC-based
trading and risk management firm, says ‘On Friday the market made a new low, but it doesn’t have a lot of momentum behind it and Elliott Wave aside I am looking at momentum and overbought/oversold signals, and I have bullish divergence and am about to get a crossover on my stochastics.’

‘We have just not had the follow through to the downside despite making new lows. It has not been the most robust sell off. The shorts have no conviction. There has been no follow through,'”

Reuters Logo March 15, 2016 – David is quoted in Devika Krishna Kumar’s article “Oil rises 2 percent as supplies seen tightening”

“The WTI crude bulls are emboldened by the double whammy of another large increase in refinery utilization rates and a big jump in crude oil export levels,”

The full article can be accessed here

March 23, 2017 – David is quoted in David Gaffen’s article “U.S. crude stockpiles at record high as imports surge: EIA

“This is evidence that refinery maintenance is wrapping up for this season. Expect to see increases on balance over the next six to eight weeks.”

The full article can be accessed here

July 21, 2016 – Elaine is quoted in Nicole Friedman and Akane Otani’s article “Why Oil Traders Are Writing Love Poems to Yahoo

“While the advance in crude oil prices has paused, I think the bears might have been hoping for a larger reaction to the downside,”

The full article can be accessed here

March 15, 2016 – David is quoted in Barani Krishnan’s article “Oil down 3 percent on technical pressure, U.S. stockpile worry”

“While the advance in crude oil prices has paused, I think the bears might have been hoping for a larger reaction to the downside,”

The full article can be accessed here

February 26, 2016 – David is quoted in Barani Krishnan’s article “Oil ends down on profit-taking but still up strongly on week”

“I think a good part of the selling was due to cashing out of winning positions people had established earlier in the week,”

The full article can be accessed here

American Oil and Gas Reporter December, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “October Low May BeThe Bottom For Gas Price”, discusses new developments in the oil market,

“It is not a leap of faith to regard the $1.948 low as a double bottom against the $1.902 low of April 2012 with higher prices ahead.”

The full column can be downloaded here

November 23, 2015 – Al is quoted in The Wall Street Journal in Nicole Friedman’s article “Oil Prices Fall on Inventory Concerns”.

The rally in response to the Saudi comments early Monday highlights how quickly prices can shoot higher, said Al Levine, chief executive of energy brokerage Powerhouse.

“Something that really was an ordinary comment got a very strong reaction,” Mr. Levine said. “You’ve got a lot of very, very nervous shorts in the market.”

The full column can be found here

American Oil and Gas Reporter November, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Mixed Signals Leave Crude Oil Prices Seeking Direction”, discusses new developments in the oil market,

“A market-determined price band may be the result, selling into higher prices and cutting output at lower levels.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter October, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Bulls and Bears Draw Different Conclusions From Price Patterns”, discusses new developments in the oil market,

“The changing landscape has split the analytical community into bullish, bearish and neutral camps”

The full column can be downloaded here

October 27, 2015 – Powerhouse goes international. David (大卫) is quoted in Caijing.com.cn, an independent magazine based in Beijing that covers societal, political, and economic issues, focusing on civil rights, public affairs, and business in an article “Low Oil Prices Come Back” (低油价时代重临)The full article is here for those that read Mandarin
American Oil and Gas Reporter September, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Oil Price Slippage Has Analysts Wondering Where Support Lies”, discusses new developments in the oil market,

“” Commodity markets are prone to exaggeration. Rallies reach Market technicians are taking the possibility of crude oil prices in the $20s seriously.”

The full column can be downloaded here

September 22, 2015 – Elaine is quoted in The Wall Street Journal in Nicole Friedman’s article “Oil Prices Fall Ahead of Inventory Data”.

Oil prices have been moving in tandem with the stock market more than usual, as fears about global economic growth prompt investors to flee riskier assets in favor of safe-haven investments like bonds.

“To some degree, we’re getting our clues from the stock market,” said Elaine Levin, president of energy brokerage Powerhouse. “All eyes are on China, trying to gauge what their demand will be like.”

Analysts say global demand has to strengthen further or production has to continue to decline to shrink the global glut of crude.

The full column can be found here

August 28, 2015 – Elaine is quoted in The Wall Street Journal in Nicole Friedman’s article “Oil Prices Rise Again as Traders Close Out Bets”.

Some market watchers are hoping for bullish signals from monthly U.S. production data due Monday afternoon, which will be the first to include output figures for June.

“We’re hearing somewhere around 200,000 barrels a day of production decline,” said Elaine Levin, president of energy brokerage Powerhouse. “We have had people coming in and buying.”

The full column can be found here

American Oil and Gas Reporter August, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Bearish News Being Countered By Bullish Signs”, discusses new developments in the oil market,

“Oil markets are cyclical. Bearish news cannot be sustained without some reaction.”

The full column can be downloaded here

FNM August, 2015 – Alan Levine discusses expectations and strategies for marketing and hedging refined products in the August Edition of Fuel Marketer News Magazine “Refined Fuels as Autumn Approaches”. 

“Early autumn presents an important inflection point for petroleum products. Gasoline retreats from the intense activity of summer driving. Distillate fuel oil interest rises in preparation for renewed economic activity in the fall and for winter heating oil demand……”

The full content of article here.

American Oil and Gas Reporter June, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Crude Oil Price Rise Sparks Producer Interest In Hedging Strategies”, discusses new developments in the oil market,

“The rally in crude oil prices this year opens the possibility of establishing protection at remunerative levels.”

The full column can be downloaded here

June 9, 2015 – Elaine is quoted in The Wall Street Journal in Nicole Friedman’s article “Oil Prices Climb on Supply Outlook, Weaker Dollar”.

Elaine Levin, president of energy brokerage Powerhouse, said “$60 has been an area where this market has been pivoting.”

“Here we are testing 60 bucks again,” she added.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery settled up $2, or 3.4%, at $60.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, rose $2.19, or 3.5%, to $64.88 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

The full column can be found here

American Oil and Gas Reporter April, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Oil Markets Undergo Departure From Normal”, discusses new features of the oil market,

“Sustained crude oil production in the face of declining prices has introduced a new element into traditional thinking about price levels…We are in slightly unexplored territory.”

The full column can be downloaded here

April 23, 2015 – Elaine is quoted in The Wall Street Journal in Nicole Friedman’s article “U.S. Oil Prices Drop After Inventory Data”.

The amount of domestic crude oil in storage has increased for 15 straight weeks.

“Everyone knows there’s a lot of crude around,” said Elaine Levin, president of energy brokerage Powerhouse. “We’re building inventories everywhere.”

The full column can be found here

April 1, 2015 – Elaine is quoted in Dow Jones NewsPlus Energy Service in Nicole Friedman’s article “Oil Prices Gain on Slight Production Drop”.

“It’s already a story everyone knows,” said Elaine Levin, president of energy brokerage Powerhouse, of growing crude-oil inventories. “I still think it keeps a cap, at least in the short term, on how high this market can rally.”

The full column can be behind the pay-wall at here

March 17, 2015 – Alan is quoted in The Wall Street Journal in Nicole Friedman’s article “U.S. Oil Prices at Six-Year Low on Storage Concerns”.

“We take very seriously the concern that’s being expressed about crude-oil containment issues,” said Alan Levine, chief executive of energy brokerage Powerhouse. “We’re anticipating that prices will test down below $40.”

The full column can be found here

American Oil and Gas Reporter March, 2015 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Conflicting Signals Leave Crude Oil Markets Seeking Direction”, discusses recent news on both the bullish AND bearish side,

“Storage reaching maximum invites shutting production in and leads to the rally. That is well in the future. For now, bearish analysts posit a final bottom for WTI … below $40”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter December, 2014 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Open Interest And Volume Data Provide Clues On Market Direction”, discusses recent drops in oil prices looking at indicators that may suggest where the market is headed.  

“It’s not clear whether crude oil prices have bottomed or are consolidating before another thrust lower.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter November, 2014 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Oil Prices Reflect U.S. Independence and Shift Within OPEC”, discusses OPEC and its reactions to the changing supply and demand in world markets.  

“Some analysts have lowered their longer-term price expectations to reflect the more bearish outlook”

The full column can be downloaded here

FNM Fall, 2014 – Alan Levine discusses crack spreads in the Fall Edition of Fuel Marketer News Magazine “Winter’s Gasoline Margin Squeeze”  full content of article here.

“The retail gasoline dealer generally suffers sub-par profits on sales in winter and early spring. Financial markets offer one way to deal with this challenge…..”

 

American Oil and Gas Reporter September, 2014 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Growing Supplies Offset Political Instability In Crude Pricing”, explores the impact of domestic production of crude and its impact on mitigating the price changes that one would expect given current events overseas.

“The possibility that WTI futures might move lower is at odds with a range of global challenges.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter August, 2014 – Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Export Debate Complicates Projections Of Crude Prices”, explores the potential impact of exports on price, supplies, and demand for crude.

” Growth in North American crude oil production has been so pressure to allow crude oil exports makes the task of projecting price more demanding.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter July, 2014 – In July, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Iraq Conflict Returns Volatility To Markets”.

“Growing uncertainty about the viability of the Iraqi government plays into traders’ fears”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter June, 2014 – In June, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter is titled “Vacillating Weather Creates Unusual Challenges For Natural Gas”.

“The balance of bullish and bearish price factors is tilting higher, but higher prices are not a sure thing.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter May, 2014 – In May, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter looks at the direction of crude prices and overall market volatility.

“…Rapidly expanding crude oil supply and modest gains in usage would seem to be a recipe for soft prices, but they have been anything but.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter April, 2014 – In April, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter looks at the impact of American crude production on geo-politics.

“…The idea of the United States possessing an energy weapon is a recent addition to the conversation.”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter March, 2014 – In March, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter looks at the demand side of oil and gas markets.

“…This month … we concentrate on demand–the only reason, after all, for producing crude oil. Demand (the equivalent of ‘product supplied’ as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration) ran between 17.7 MMbbl/d and 20.2 MMbbl/d on a weekly basis in 2013.

U.S. demand reached its peak in February 2007 at slightly more than 22.0 MMbbl/d. Subsequently, product supplied fell to 17.6 MMbbl/d in May 2009, the conclusion of a long downturn reflecting the long recession endured by the United States…”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter February, 2014 – In February, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter covers the impact of increasing domestic crude production on domestic energy markets.

“What can one expect energy markets to be like in 2014?  Petroleum is in the throes of profound change that is presenting as shifts in traditional geographic alliances and changes in supply sources, distribution patterns, interfuel competition and regulatory regimes.

Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) traded in a $9.25 range for the most part of last year, ranging between $90.25 and $99.50 a barrel.  Prices spiked briefly to $112.24 in August, reflecting geopolitical unrest in Syria and other Middle East and North African states.  The year ended with near record supplies of crude oil in the United States…”

The full column can be downloaded here

American Oil and Gas Reporter January, 2014 – In January, Alan’s monthly column in The American Oil & Gas Reporter covers the impact of increasing domestic crude production on domestic energy markets.

“Geopolitics have never been simple in the petroleum industry, and 2014 is likely to fall in line as yet another time of complexity…Changes in the crude oil environment should become more important in 2014. The availability of secure domestic crude oil, profound changes in crude oil distribution capabilities, and refilling storage at Cushing, Ok., will impact prices.

This does not mean the United States will be entirely exempt from the effect of international geopolitical events. The United States has become the go-to refiner for Latin America and Europe, exporting petroleum products at historically high levels. And products are, after all, crude oil at further stage of manufacture…

The full column can be downloaded here

cspnet logo October 7, 2013 – In it’s Heating Season Outlook, Fuel Oil News talked with Brian Milne editor of Schneider Electric’s MarketWire; and Powerhouse’s very own Alan Levine.  Al gives his thoughts on heating oil and natural gas markets along with other insights on

…this year the futures contract transitioned from a heating oil contract to ultralow sulfur diesel contract with a May delivery and with that transition there was a slight bump up in value because ULSD has a higher specification. [Al] noted that dealers and marketers will have to get used to this new landscape as it’s going to be the norm moving forward. “Particularly in New England, there has been some change in the laws as to the sulfur content, and this is a period of tremendous flux even though some states are not yet at the point where ultralow sulfur content is required,” Levine said.

“What they are finding is that the pricing is tending to be based on the price of ultralow sulfur because of uncertainty as to what grade of distillate fuel oil is going to be available as the year wears on. Most of these guys have been selling high sulfur—500 ppm or more—and now they are in a different world and we have data here that demonstrates that refiners have markedly reduced their output of high sulfur fuel and are essentially focusing much more on producing ultralow sulfur which is less than 15 ppm. So that’s a serious problem and there is no clear answer as to how precisely that will turn out this year. As we move forward, it seems more and more likely that refiners will try to get out of the business of producing high sulfur fuel.”…

The outlook then turns to the natural gas market:

…Relatively low natural gas prices have certainly challenged the industry, but both our experts agree that the era of super-low natural gas prices has passed.

While there is newly accessible abundant supply, natural gas still have to compete with abundant coal (current assaults on the fuel by the EPA aside) as well as growing exports and increases in natural gas demand domestically as an alternative motor fuel. As Levine noted, “Gas may have an upside constrained by the amount of fuel, but at the same time you can’t really move materially below $3 because of fuel competition (with coal).”

“A year and half ago we got down to about $1.90 in, and we’re not going to see it go below two dollars again,” Milne said. “We did get over $4 dollars in May then it trended down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see natural gas get over $4 dollars this winter, but not much more than that. You’re probably looking at about $3.25 to $4.25 market.”

“The market for gas has moved down over the past several months, trading right now at $3.53, and what’s happened is, starting around April, prices topped out somewhere around $4.60 or so and have moved down ever since with very little upward momentum,” Levine said.

“But at the same time open interest—the number of futures contracts available—has not risen as prices have fallen so there is no evidence here that people are really lining up to get short in the market. We think that the likelihood of anything much under $3 dollars is very slim.”..

cspnet logo October 12, 2013 – Elaine Levin’s presentation at NACS is covered in CSPNet.com “NACS Show: How Wall Street can protect retailer profits”  full content of article here.She covered the sources of change and volatility in domestic and global gasoline markets:

“the United States is consuming less petroleum thanks in part to the recession as well as fewer drivers on the road with baby boomers retiring and new drivers waiting longer to get their licenses. On the plus side, there is plenty of stock, as advancement in technology has the United States producing more crude oil than it has in decades. “Regretfully, high supplies and low demand has not translated into big profits, because gas is a global market,” Levin said, noting that the recent crises in Syria and Libya all had an effect on the international petroleum market. “Even though we have our own sources of crude oil, it’s not enough to offset what’s on in the world. We are not immune to the latest headlines.”…

And then covered strategies that gasoline retailers can use to protect gasoline margins from volatility in gasoline prices:

“We put you and your futures account in the profit profile of the refiner so that as the wholesale price goes up and the refining margin goes up, money comes into your futures account to offset the loss of retail profit margins,” said Levin. “We basically turn it into an integrated oil company on paper, without all the headaches of actually buying a refinery.”…

FNM October 11, 2013 – Alan Levine in Fuel Marketer News “Perseverance”  full content of article here.

“I began my business as a commodities futures broker around 1983. My first customer was a gasoline distributor in Chicago. I was invited to visit him.   To my best recollection, I landed at Midway, was picked up and driven to the company headquarters which were on the Chicago River. The company had been around since the 1860′s or so. It was in the eighth generation of family ownership….”

Natural Gas News - Daily & Weekly Gas Prices - Shale News & Research - Intelligence Press September 30, 2013 – David Thompson in NGI’s Daily Gas Price Index “Marcellus Points Remain Volatile; Futures Inch Higher” (subscriptions required)  full content of article here.

“…Commenting on the supply constraints of pricing points within the heart of the Marcellus Shale, David Thompson, executive vice president of Washington, DC-based Powerhouse, said the current situation plaguing the region is reminiscent of the Rockies a number of years ago. ‘In the Rockies, the thinking was, “we’ve got all this gas, Chicago is going to want it all,” but everyone jammed up the pipelines and you couldn’t get any more gas out. What is the value of gas [stuck] in the middle of the Piceance Basin? Just about zero. I think this is what we’re seeing with the Marcellus now.’…..”

Futures- Stock, Commodity, Options, and Forex Strategies for the Serious Trader September 25, 2013 – Alan H Levine in Futures Magazine: “Energy Outlook and What You Might Do About It”

“…Here we will focus on the fundamental elements now influencing markets and the various technical factors that signal market movements. And since liquid petroleum markets have different fundamentals at work than do natural gas, we’ll have something to say about each…..”

PlattsLogo September 9, 2013 – David Thompson in Gas Daily:  “NYMEX, cash fall as traders eye shoulder season” (subscriptions required) full content of article below:

The NYMEX October gas futures contract slid another 4.5 cents Friday to settle at $3.53/MMBtu as the selloff continued due to Thursday’s bearish storage report. Cash prices dropped in most regions, with Alberta prices nearing 15-month lows. David Thompson, vice president at Powerhouse, said Thursday’s NYMEX action was “known as a key reversal day,” adding that the contract settled beneath the two prior days’ closes and lower than the open on the two previous sessions. “It’s not surprising we followed through to the downside. We areclosing right on top of the 20-day exponential moving average, which could be a reason we held in this area, but it begs the question what will happen on Monday. My bet is the bears have control of this,” Thompson said. TFS Energy Futures broker Gene McGillian also was not surprised by the downside move, adding that “we are on the cusp of shoulder season where we have low seasonal demand” coupled with high production levels and limited tropical storm activity. McGillian said the $3.50 area is also where utilities decide to use coal or gas for power generation, as the market between the two is so competitive. “Prices are going to come under control, but there’s a reluctance to get aggressively short as we get close to winter,” he said, noting that the contract will be driven back and forth until then. In the Southwest cash market, prices dropped despite continued strong demand in the region. The California city-gates sat among North America’s highest spot prices as Sacramento was forecast to hit triple-digit temperatures Sunday and Monday, well above the seasonal norm. Platts unit Bentek Energy said cooling degree days in the Southwest have reached double digits for 10 days straight, the longest streak this summer. In that time, California and Southwest demand have averaged 9.3 Bcf/d, or 1 Bcf/d above normal for this time of year, according to Bentek. That is not expected to fall off much as Bentek forecasts demand in the region will average 9.1 Bcf/d over the next week.

PlattsLogo July 16, 2013 – Elaine Levin in Gas Daily:  “NYMEX bottom in $3.20-$3.40 range: Analysts” (subscriptions required) full content of article below:

The technical bottom for the NYMEX gas futures contract is in the $3.20/MMBtu-$3.40/MMBtu range, though it could sink into the $2.80s if bearish fundamentals persist, according to analysts.Spurred in part by hefty gas storage injections so far this summer, the NYMEX prompt-month contract has fallen hard from its March high of $4.444/MMBtu. With the NYMEX August contract settling at $3.674/MMBtu Monday and the 20-day moving average indicating strong resistance at $3.704/MMBtu, any price below that indicates a bearish trend, said Powerhouse President Elaine Levin. “Technicals are definitely on the side of the bears in this market,” she said, noting that all technical indicators are showing a downward trend. Once gas has broken through support at $3.60/MMBtu, the next support level is at $3.40/MMBtu, with $3.10/MMBtu coming after that, she added. Open interest has been falling over the last month, yet in the past few days it began creeping back up, noted Levin. “Maybe some new shorts are entering the market, which might give it some momentum.” According to Willis Bennett, an analyst with EcomEnergy, unsupportive fundamentals have pushed the contract through some key support levels, raising questions about just where the technical bottom is. ICAP Energy analyst Walter Zimmermann said among the current technical targets, $3.40/MMBtu is proving to be a pivotal support level and the only potential support between the levels of $3.580/MMBtu and $2.88/MMBtu. According to Zimmermann, the April 16 Goldman Sachs proclamation that natural gas is the new “safe haven” for commodities has brought about an “extreme” bullish sentiment. “Natural gas bulls very much need a decisive break above $3.810/MMBtu to have any case for bottoming action,” Zimmermann said. Schork Group analyst Stephen Schork said the current technical bottom is at $3.29/MMBtu, with support likely staying within a $3.29/MMBtu-$3.32/MMBtu range for the near term. Due to a large reallocation of funds from gas to crude oil, however, gas prices will likely slide back to $3/MMBtu, he added. Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans said the likely bottom could be at around $3.25/MMBtu, citing “the ongoing bearish storage trend, which is maintaining pressure on money managers to reduce long positions.“ According to Evans, that trend will likely continue at least until the end of July, with the storage deficit to the five-year average likely turning into a small surplus. Evans said the NYMEX’s failure to rally on the current heat wave underscores the market’s vulnerability to a further price decline. Independent analyst Les Deman pointed to a possibility of the August prompt-month contract dropping “another 50 cents to pick up a few Bcf/d of power load from coal.” Similarly, Bank of America analysts said the market is facing a need for prices to drop to and below the $3.50/MMBtu level to be able to regain some market share from coal and reverse the bearish storage trend. “At $3.50/MMBtu, natural gas starts to become competitive with coal again in power generation and we see much lower end-of-season storage levels,” BOA said. Anastasia Gnezditskaia

gastraderlogo June 21, 2013 – Elaine Levin in GasTrader.net:  “Down Again” (subscriptions required) full content of article below:

The market continued lower early on Friday…”if you just take a look at the charts and with the momentum we have we still have very good support at $3.70. If you break under that, you have another dime.” See Elaine’s full comments in the article here..

gastraderlogo May 23, 2013 – David Thompson in GasTrader.net:  “Limited Upside Seen” (subscriptions required) full content of article below:

“…Upside may be limited…”There is a huge amount of production that comes on line as prices get anywhere north of $4.50. If I am a producer and I start flowing my gas, I’m going to sell futures against it…” See David’s full comments in the article here..